Turner? Rodgers? or Matthews?

Hi Doc.

I am in a 12 man single keeper league with the 5th pick in the draft and I must choose between one of the three above for my first pick. I currently have Aaron Rodgers and Michael Turner on my team from last year but I am thinking of throwing them both back in the “pot” and picking Ryan Matthews. Your thoughts?

Answer: We love Ryan Matthews this year, but I think I would keep Rodgers, we think Rodgers will finish the year as the #1 QB, he has potential to be in the 35+ TD range this year. We like Turner but think Matthews could be top 5 amongst RB’s when the season ends, so if you can throw back Turner and get Matthews do it. We have Turner in the second 10 range or 11-20 range amongst RB’s.

O Line Rankings

Dr. Stats,
I know you have an article on O Line thoughts but do you have a ranking (like strengh of schedule) that you have on O-lines? Obviously bad o Line for Pass or Rush may effect players performances as well. Just curious if you have a ranking report at all.

Answer: We have ranked them in the past, perhaps we will take a shot at this a few weeks into the season.

Gaffney or Holmes

Hi Dr Stats.

I appreciate your insight and your blog. I ended up with 2 tightends due to autopick being clicked on by accident. John Carlson and Zach Miller. I want to get rid of one, and add either Jabar Gaffney or Santonio Holmes from the free agent pool as a backup wide receiver. I already have Andre Johnson, Mike Sims-Walker, Hines Ward, and Dez Bryant. I know this is a risk either way. I was wondering which direction you would go on this.

Thanks
Al

Answer: I would get rid of Carlson, Campbell will rely heavily on Miller this year. I think even pending the early suspension which is 4 games for Holmes, I would go with Holmes. We have them rated fairly equal, but I think the upside over the final 10 weeks will be far greater for Holmes, you just have to deal with the suspension period and then you should get good upside over the final 10 weeks. At best Gaffney will be a borderline start for you each and every week.

Impact Report – Seattle Seahawks

No NFL franchise experienced more upheaval this season that the Seattle Seahawks.  And, fortunately for Seahawks fans, it could not have come at a better time.  Pete Carroll was lured away from USC, and will now be running the show in the Pacific Northwest.  Say what you want about the circumstances surrounding Sneaky Pete’s exodus from Southern Cal, he brings with him a swagger and a refreshing football acumen that the Seahawks have lacked in recent years.  The roster on the offensive side of the ball got a facelift this offseason, as well, with the additions of RB Leon Wasington, OT Russell Okung, and WR Golden Tate.  The Seahawks will still lean heavily on QB Matt Hasselbeck in 2010, and his play will go a long way toward determining the degree of success Carroll experiences in his first-year roaming the Seattle sideline.

Hasselbeck is a boom-or-bust fantasy option.  He could very well find his old form and throw for 25+ scores.  Or he could suffer a season-ending injury to any number of body parts on his first snap from center in the regular season opener.  He is a QB2 in 2010, even if luck is on his side.  The backfield is a fantasy mess, with all indications pointing to an RBBC situation.  Justin Forsett is the most talented ball-carrier on the roster, but will have to hold off Julius Jones and Washington to capitalize on his potential.  He is a low-end RB2 or sturdy RB3 prospect.  T.J. Houshmanzadeh will never be considered a deep-threat, but he also finished 2009 in the top-5 in terms of targets, which carries with it inherent fantasy value.  He will again be Hasselbeck’s first read on the majority of pass plays, but his plodding possession receiver skill set makes him no more than a WR2/WR3.  Tate is in a great position to surprise alot of people around the league and have a stellar rookie year, and he is an excellent sleeper candidate in the latter rounds of rotisserie drafts.  Tight end John Carlson could have a big year as well, but his fortunes depend on Hasselbeck staying healthy and the offensive line playing better than it did in 2009.

Impact Report – Arizona Cardinals

The 2010 Arizona Cardinals will look a lot different than the team that went to the Super Bowl just two seasons ago.  Gone now are quarterback Kurt Warner, wide receiver Anquan Boldin, and linebacker Karlos Dansby…all key cogs of that veteran-laden 2008 NFC Championship run.  Instead, Cardinals coaches will be leaning this season on relatively inexperienced players like quarterback Matt Leinart, receivers Steve Breaston and Early Doucet, and running back Beanie Wells, to return them deep into the playoffs.  Few teams face more uncertainty heading into the 2010 campaign, but the Cards remain talented enough on both sides of the ball to make a run at a third straight NFC West crown.

Leinart has struggled when given the reins in the past, and there is no reason to suspect he will be a more competent professional going forward.  He is a low-end QB2 fantasy option, and his erratic play hurts the fantasy prospects of his talented group of receivers, as well.  Larry Fitzgerald should still have a respectable year simply because he is that good, but do not be surprised if he finishes the season in unchartered territory (i.e., outside of the top-20 at his position).  Breaston and Doucet will likely both have strong individual showings throughout the year, but each is no better than a WR3/WR4 as a week-to-week starter.  Wells is perhaps the most intriguing fantasy asset from the Cards roster, as the team figures to run more this year with Leniart under center, and Wells has the raw talent of a top-10 back.  Still, until the organization shows a commitment to giving Beanie at least 75% of the work in the Arizona backfield, draft Wells as a solid RB2.

Impact Report – San Francisco 49ers

Despite finishing 2009 with a middling 8-8 record, San Francisco 49ers fans are as optimistic entering the 2010 season as they have been in some time.  Last season saw a rudimentary coming of age for several players that figure to be big pieces of the puzzle in San Fran for years to come.  Quarterback Alex Smith, wide receiver Michael Crabtree, and tight end Vernon Davis all enjoyed “breakout” moments throughout the season (to varying degrees), and each has only begun to tap his respective potential.  Despite missing a few games to injury, running back Frank Gore also enjoyed a fruitful 2009 campaign.  And with the organization making a concerted effort to improve the offensive line this offseason (utilizing two first-round picks in April’s draft to strenghten the unit), Gore should have even more room to run in 2010.

The additions of Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati (both of whom figure to start sooner, rather than later) along the offensive front portend well to Gore’s fantasy prospects in 2010.  Though the 49ers threw the ball a lot more than most people realize last season, Gore still finished the year as a top-10 fantasy back, and has a good chance to do the same in 2010 (even with the recent signing of Brian Westbrook, who will spell Gore now that Glen Coffee has decided to pursue other vocational endeavors).  Alex Smith will likely never be the player the franchise hoped when drafting him No. 1 overall in 2005, but he should be a solid QB2 option available to fantasy owners in the later rounds of upcoming drafts.  Vernon Davis may never have another year like 2009, but he must be viewed as top-10 fantasy option at his position after hauling in 13 touchdown receptions last year.  Michael Crabtree missed all of training camp before coming into the fold last season, yet still showed flashes of the talent that has had NFL personnel salivating since the diva wideout burst onto the national scene at Texas Tech.  He is a WR2 prospect for now, but will likely be a WR1 at some point (soon) in his fledgling career.  In IDP leagues, it goes without saying that linebacker Patrick Willis is absolute fantasy gold.

Impact Report – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished the 2009 season at the bottom of the NFC South standings, and are a great bet to do so again in 2010.  With a rookie quarterback in Josh Freeman, a below-average backfield, and a depth chart full of practice-squad type receivers, it’s not hard to figure out why the Bucs struggled offensively in 2009.  The defense was a disaster last season, as well, and Tampa fans were finally put out of their misery when the team’s 3-13 season came to a close in early-January.

From a fantasy perspective, few teams had less to offer than the Bucs.  Even this year, their roster is filled with skill position players who represent only mediocre (at best) fantasy value.  Running back Cadillac Williams is probably the most interesting option in Tampa Bay, and what owner is willing to put much stock in him staying healthy for 16 games?  Freeman is pure wire fodder, and it looks as if he very well may be dropping back and deciding between one of two rookie flankers on any given pass play.  Arrelious Benn was the higher drafted of the two Bucs’ rookie wideouts, but Mike Williams is the more dynamic of the two (and thus has the better fantasy prospects, both this year and in the long-term).  Still, Williams should not be selected before the late rounds of fantasy drafts.  Kellen Winslow has a relatively high ADP this season for a tight end who has never hauled in more than six touchdowns in a single season.  Let another owners overpay for him, and instead focus your attention on other fantasy commodities (and preferably those NOT donning the pewter and red).

Impact Report – Atlanta Falcons

Thought to be a team on the rise after the 2008 season, the Atlanta Falcons took a step backwards in 2009.  Quarterback Matt Ryan did not take the strides most expected of him in his second year, and workhorse back Michael Turner spent much of the season rehabbing from injury.  The defensive secondary got burned early and often, and left the offense playing catch-up far more often than Falcons coaches would have preferred.  The core of talent from the team’s stellar 2008 campaign returns, however, and once again big things are expected from this (now healthy) group of Falcons in 2010.

Ryan was a major disappointment to fantasy owners in 2009, and though he has plenty of weapons around him, he is no longer looked at as a QB1 in most circles.  It’s possible he exceeds expectations, of course, but owners should not reach for him as early as they may have a season ago.  In a year where many fantasy honks openly pine for a top-5 draft selection (to draft one of the few “sure thing” backs), Michael Turner is being overlooked.  On a pace for another monster season last year before going down to injury, The Burner seems to be the forgotten man at the top of fantasy cheat sheets this year.  Don’t be fooled, Turner is a fantasy stud, and will prove it again in 2010 (assuming he can avoid the type of injuries that derailed the second half of his 2009 campaign).  Roddy White is a bonafide WR1, though he doesn’t receive the fanfare than many of his counterparts do around the league.  The starter on the opposite side of the field, Michael Jenkins, is a tremendous blocker, but represents very little fantasy value as a pass-catcher.  Tony Gonzalez will return for at least one more season in 2010, but has shown signs of slowing down a bit, and may not ever again be the fantasy stalwart he was when roaming the middle of Arrowhead Stadium during his years in Kansas City.

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Keeper League Question

I get to keep 2 players
My choices are Maurice Jones Drew, Shonn Greene, Mendenhal, Fitzgerald.
My first one is easy in Drew…it’s the second one that has me crazy.
1. Fitzerald I really think with his new QB he will have trouble getting him the ball.
2. Mendenhal I really think he is going to have a tough time doing anything.
3. Greene I really think what you said in your site is true LT is done. With a strong off-line and a team that will score…I have to pick Greene.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Answer:That would be my pick as well, also keeping in mind that Sanchez is not that great, they are going to be a run first unit. Fitz is a little dinged as well, Leinart has looked mediocre at best so far this year.